FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Burnley 1–2 Bristol CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Burnley at 56%, draw at 24%, Bristol City at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Burnley to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Burnley win
56%
Draw
24%
City win
20%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.81 – 0.98
Total 2.79
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Burnley's playoff survival desperation against a Bristol City side with nothing to play for tilts the model toward 1X at 82%, anchored by the hosts' 0.94 xG advantage and striker Zian Flemming controlling nearly a third of their attacking threat."