Before kickoff our call was Derby County or draw at 73%. Bawler had Derby County at 46%, the draw at 26% and Stoke City at 27%. The match finished 0–1.
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.