FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Derby County 1–1 WrexhamMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Derby County or draw at 69%. Bawler had Derby County at 42%, the draw at 27% and Wrexham at 31%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Derby County win
42%
Draw
27%
Result
Wrexham win
31%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Derby County or draw
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.