FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Burnley 1–1 Derby CountyMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Burnley at 51%, draw at 25%, Derby County at 24%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Burnley to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Burnley win
51%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
County win
24%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.75 – 1.12
Total 2.86
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Burnley's 0.60 expected-goals advantage and Zian Flemming's 32% of team creation power make the 1X forecast (77% confidence) the model's clearest call, with home unbeaten as the likeliest outcome."