FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Burnley 1–1 Derby CountyMatch recap · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Burnley win
51%
Draw
25%
Result
Derby County win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.