FT · England: Championship · Wednesday, 14 October 2026

Queens Park Rangers 4–1 Derby CountyMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 14 October 2026

Queens Park Rangers
4–1
Queens Park Rangers win
Derby County

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Queens Park Rangers or draw at 72%. Bawler had Queens Park Rangers at 45%, the draw at 27% and Derby County at 28%. The match finished 4–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Queens Park Rangers win
45%
Result
Draw
27%
Derby County win
28%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.3 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Queens Park Rangers or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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