Derby County 1–2 Birmingham CityMatch recap · Saturday, 12 September 2026

1–2

Birmingham City win

Pre-match probability vs result

Derby County win

39%

Draw

28%

Birmingham City win

33%

Result

Our forecast

1.3 – 1.2

Total 2.5

Actual

1 – 2

Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)

Chances created (xG)

1.0 – 3.1

From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.