Derby County 1–2 Birmingham CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026

1–2

Birmingham City win

Birmingham City

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Derby County at 39%, draw at 28%, Birmingham City at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Derby County to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

County win

39%

Draw

28%

City win

33%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.33 – 1.21

Total 2.54

Actual

1 – 2

Total 3 (+0.5 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Pre-match: 67%

✗ Lost

Outside shot

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 25%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Derby County's home advantage tilts the forecast toward 1X (67% combined win or draw probability), as both sides project nearly identical attacking threat with xG figures separated by just 0.12."

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