FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Swansea City 3–1 BurnleyMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Swansea City at 33%, draw at 28%, Burnley at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-1. The model's headline call was Burnley to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
33%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Burnley win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.23 – 1.33
Total 2.56
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 67%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Burnley's superior shot volume (1.33 xG vs 1.23) and 38% win probability edge the prediction toward X2, a high-confidence forecast despite Swansea's home advantage."