FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Watford 0–4 BurnleyMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Burnley or draw at 64%. Bawler had Watford at 36%, the draw at 27% and Burnley at 37%. The match finished 0–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Watford win
36%
Draw
27%
Burnley win
37%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.