Brentford and Sunderland drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Brentford at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 2 were scored. Brentford had 12 shots (2 on target) to Sunderland's 14 (5), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 1.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 68%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Brentford and Sunderland drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Brentford at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 2 were scored. Brentford had 12 shots (2 on target) to Sunderland's 14 (5), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 1.9.
Brentford 1–1 Sunderland, played on 05 Sept 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Brentford 55%, the draw 25% and Sunderland 21%.
Full-time: Possession 49%–51%, Expected goals (xG) 1.3–1.9, Shots 12–14, Shots on target 2–5, Shots inside box 7–10, Big chances 3–3, Corners 4–3, Saves 2–1, Fouls 19–9, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 3–2.
Yes — both Brentford and Sunderland scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Brentford or draw 79%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 54%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 77%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Brentford to win 55%, it finished Missed.