FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Brentford 3–0 Tottenham HotspurMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Brentford at 52%, draw at 25%, Tottenham Hotspur at 23%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Brentford.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Brentford win
52%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Hotspur win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.72 – 1.07
Total 2.79
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost