FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Sunderland 1–0 FulhamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sunderland at 36%, draw at 28%, Fulham at 36%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Sunderland.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sunderland win
36%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Fulham win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.27 – 1.27
Total 2.54
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost