FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Sunderland 1–0 AZ AlkmaarMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sunderland at 57%, draw at 24%, AZ Alkmaar at 19%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Sunderland.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sunderland win
57%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Alkmaar win
19%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.81 – 0.95
Total 2.76
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Sunderland's 0.86 expected-goals advantage and 57% win probability make 1X the model's high-confidence call at 81%, with creator Le Fée and striker Brobbey generating nearly a third of their team's attacking threat against an AZ side managed by Troy Parrott's 24% xG share alone."