FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Sunderland 1–0 AZ AlkmaarMatch recap · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Sunderland win
57%
Result
Draw
24%
AZ Alkmaar win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 0.9
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.