FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Ipswich Town 2–1 SunderlandMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Ipswich Town or draw at 64%. Bawler had Ipswich Town at 36%, the draw at 29% and Sunderland at 36%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Ipswich Town win
36%
Result
Draw
29%
Sunderland win
36%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.5
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.