FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Ipswich Town 2–1 SunderlandMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Ipswich Town at 36%, draw at 29%, Sunderland at 36%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Ipswich Town.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Town win
36%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Sunderland win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.27 – 1.26
Total 2.52
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost