FT · England: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Sunderland 1–0 Hull CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sunderland at 67%, draw at 20%, Hull City at 13%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Sunderland.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sunderland win
67%
Actual ✓
Draw
20%
City win
13%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.14 – 0.82
Total 2.96
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 67%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Sunderland's home win is the high-confidence forecast at 67% probability, built on a dominant 1.30 expected-goals advantage and creator Enzo Le Fée's 14% share of team attacking output."