FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Leeds United 1–1 BrentfordMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Leeds United at 40%, draw at 25%, Brentford at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Leeds United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
40%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Brentford win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.59 – 1.45
Total 3.04
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won