FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Birmingham City 1–6 BrentfordMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Birmingham City at 18%, draw at 23%, Brentford at 59%. The match ended 1-6 — confirming the model's lean toward Brentford.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
18%
Draw
23%
Brentford win
59%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.97 – 1.95
Total 2.92
Actual
1 – 6
Total 7 (+4.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 4.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✓ Won