FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Birmingham City 1–6 BrentfordMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Brentford or draw at 82%. Bawler had Birmingham City at 18%, the draw at 23% and Brentford at 59%. The match finished 1–6.
Pre-match probability vs result
Birmingham City win
18%
Draw
23%
Brentford win
59%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 2.0
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 6
Total 7 (+4.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced 4.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Brentford or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.