FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
AFC Bournemouth 2–2 BrentfordMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had AFC Bournemouth at 46%, draw at 24%, Brentford at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was AFC Bournemouth to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Bournemouth win
46%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
Brentford win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.81 – 1.42
Total 3.22
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries an 83% forecast confidence, driven by Bournemouth's 1.81 xG and Brentford's Igor Rodrigues accounting for 34% of his side's attacking threat."