How it finished
AZ Alkmaar and Willem II drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured AZ Alkmaar at 77% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 14%. It forecast 3.7 goals; only 2 were scored. AZ Alkmaar had 22 shots (5 on target) to Willem II's 8 (2), with 67% of the ball against 33%. Expected goals finished 2.5 to 0.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 82%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar and Willem II drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured AZ Alkmaar at 77% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 14%. It forecast 3.7 goals; only 2 were scored. AZ Alkmaar had 22 shots (5 on target) to Willem II's 8 (2), with 67% of the ball against 33%. Expected goals finished 2.5 to 0.9.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Willem II, played on 11 Sept 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with AZ Alkmaar 77%, the draw 14% and Willem II 9%.
What were the stats in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Full-time: Possession 67%–33%, Expected goals (xG) 2.5–0.9, Shots 22–8, Shots on target 5–2, Shots inside box 16–6, Big chances 4–1, Corners 11–2, Saves 1–4, Fouls 7–8, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 0–1.
Did both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Yes — both AZ Alkmaar and Willem II scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said AZ Alkmaar to win 77%, it finished Draw (14% called); Total goals — we said 3.7, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Over 3.5 goals 51%, it finished Missed.