FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Willem II 2–2 HeerenveenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Willem II at 25%, draw at 23%, Heerenveen at 53%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Heerenveen to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
II win
25%
Draw
23%
Actual ✓
Heerenveen win
53%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.34 – 2.03
Total 3.38
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost