FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Ajax Amsterdam 5–1 Willem IIMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Ajax Amsterdam at 74%, draw at 16%, Willem II at 10%. The match ended 5-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Ajax Amsterdam.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Amsterdam win
74%
Actual ✓
Draw
16%
II win
10%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.70 – 0.93
Total 3.63
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+2.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Ajax's home win is the high-confidence call at 74%, built on a decisive 1.76 xG advantage and Weghorst's 26% share of their attacking load against Willem II's 0.93 expected goals."