FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Ajax Amsterdam 5–1 Willem IIMatch recap · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Ajax Amsterdam win
74%
Result
Draw
16%
Willem II win
10%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.7 – 0.9
Total 3.6
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.8 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.