FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 11 October 2026
FC Utrecht 3–1 Willem IIMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Utrecht to win at 65%. Bawler had FC Utrecht at 65%, the draw at 20% and Willem II at 16%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Utrecht win
65%
Result
Draw
20%
Willem II win
16%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 1.1
Total 3.4
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 3.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Utrecht to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.