FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Willem II 0–3 ExcelsiorMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Willem II at 29%, draw at 24%, Excelsior at 47%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Excelsior.
> Pre-match probability vs result
II win
29%
Draw
24%
Excelsior win
47%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.86
Total 3.28
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates this forecast at 84%, as Excelsior's 1.86 expected goals and 0.44 xG advantage suggest an attacking performance Willem II's 1.42 xG production may struggle to contain."