FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Fortuna Sittard 0–2 AZ AlkmaarMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Fortuna Sittard at 23%, draw at 24%, AZ Alkmaar at 53%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward AZ Alkmaar.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sittard win
23%
Draw
24%
Alkmaar win
53%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.18 – 1.87
Total 3.05
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✗ Lost