FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Fortuna Sittard 0–2 AZ AlkmaarMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AZ Alkmaar or draw at 77%. Bawler had Fortuna Sittard at 23%, the draw at 24% and AZ Alkmaar at 53%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fortuna Sittard win
23%
Draw
24%
AZ Alkmaar win
53%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.9
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 4.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
AZ Alkmaar to win
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.