FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 29 August 2026
AZ Alkmaar 5–2 Go Ahead EaglesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had AZ Alkmaar at 66%, draw at 19%, Go Ahead Eagles at 15%. The match ended 5-2 — confirming the model's lean toward AZ Alkmaar.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Alkmaar win
66%
Actual ✓
Draw
19%
Eagles win
15%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.34 – 1.05
Total 3.39
Actual
5 – 2
Total 7 (+3.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 66%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"AZ Alkmaar's home win commands 66% forecast probability, built on a decisive 1.29 xG advantage and Troy Parrott's striker role accounting for nearly a quarter of their attacking threat."