FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Friday, 11 September 2026
AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Willem IIMatch recap · Friday, 11 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
AZ Alkmaar win
77%
Draw
14%
Result
Willem II win
9%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.8 – 0.9
Total 3.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.