FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Friday, 11 September 2026
AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Willem IIMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 11 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had AZ Alkmaar at 77%, draw at 14%, Willem II at 9%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was AZ Alkmaar to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Alkmaar win
77%
Draw
14%
Actual ✓
II win
9%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.83 – 0.88
Total 3.71
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"AZ Alkmaar's home win is the model's high-confidence call at 77%, built on a dominant 1.95 xG advantage that Troy Parrott and company should convert into clear superiority over Willem II."