FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Heerenveen 2–3 AZ AlkmaarMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Heerenveen at 33%, draw at 25%, AZ Alkmaar at 42%. The match ended 2-3 — confirming the model's lean toward AZ Alkmaar.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Heerenveen win
33%
Draw
25%
Alkmaar win
42%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.49 – 1.71
Total 3.19
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 83% because both teams combine for 3.19 expected goals, with AZ's striker Troy Parrott generating 24% of his side's chances in a fixture where the xG gap sits just 0.22 apart."