FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 20 September 2026
AZ Alkmaar 1–0 TelstarMatch recap · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
AZ Alkmaar win
65%
Result
Draw
19%
Telstar win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 1.1
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 2.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.