How it finished
Austin FC and San Jose Earthquakes drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured San Jose Earthquakes at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 23%. It forecast 3.4 goals; only 2 were scored. Austin FC had 16 shots (3 on target) to San Jose Earthquakes' 10 (2), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 0.6.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 76%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Austin FC and San Jose Earthquakes drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured San Jose Earthquakes at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 23%. It forecast 3.4 goals; only 2 were scored. Austin FC had 16 shots (3 on target) to San Jose Earthquakes' 10 (2), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 1.2 to 0.6.
What was the final score in Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Austin FC 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes, played on 06 Sept 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Austin FC 30%, the draw 23% and San Jose Earthquakes 47%.
What were the stats in Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Full-time: Possession 53%–47%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–0.6, Shots 16–10, Shots on target 3–2, Shots inside box 14–10, Big chances 1–1, Corners 7–7, Saves 1–2, Fouls 10–12, Offsides 3–0, Yellow cards 1–1.
Did both teams score in Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Yes — both Austin FC and San Jose Earthquakes scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 67% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said San Jose Earthquakes or draw 70%, it finished Draw (23% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 67%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 86%, it finished Landed.