FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Houston Dynamo FC 0–0 San Jose EarthquakesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Houston Dynamo FC at 42%, draw at 25%, San Jose Earthquakes at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Houston Dynamo FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
42%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Earthquakes win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.69 – 1.49
Total 3.17
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 83%, backed by Houston's 1.69 xG and a narrow 0.20-goal gap that suggests attacking balance will translate to multiple scores."