FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Seattle Sounders FC 1–2 Austin FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Seattle Sounders FC at 62%, draw at 22%, Austin FC at 16%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Seattle Sounders FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
62%
Draw
22%
FC win
16%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.03 – 0.95
Total 2.98
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 84%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost