FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
FC Dallas 0–0 Austin FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Dallas at 57%, draw at 23%, Austin FC at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was FC Dallas to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Dallas win
57%
Draw
23%
Actual ✓
FC win
20%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.96 – 1.08
Total 3.04
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Dallas's 60% win forecast rests on a dominant 1.02 expected-goals edge, signaling the home side should control this matchup."