FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Portland Timbers 1–2 Austin FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Portland Timbers at 55%, draw at 23%, Austin FC at 22%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Portland Timbers to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Timbers win
55%
Draw
23%
FC win
22%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.94 – 1.15
Total 3.09
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call, backed by Portland's 0.78 xG advantage and a combined expected output of 3.09 that favors an open attacking match at home."