FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Austin FC 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Austin FC at 30%, draw at 23%, San Jose Earthquakes at 47%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was San Jose Earthquakes to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
30%
Draw
23%
Actual ✓
Earthquakes win
47%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.51 – 1.92
Total 3.44
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 86%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 86%, driven by San Jose's 0.41 xG advantage and their 47% win probability in a matchup where combined expected goals reach 3.44."