FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
LA Galaxy 1–0 San Jose EarthquakesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had LA Galaxy at 38%, draw at 24%, San Jose Earthquakes at 38%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward LA Galaxy.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Galaxy win
38%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Earthquakes win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.71 – 1.70
Total 3.41
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost