FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2 Austin FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Vancouver Whitecaps at 78%, draw at 14%, Austin FC at 7%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Vancouver Whitecaps to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Whitecaps win
78%
Draw
14%
FC win
7%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.74 – 0.75
Total 3.50
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 78%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Vancouver Whitecaps' home win is the model's 79% call, built on a dominant 1.99 xG advantage and Brian White's striker threat accounting for nearly a quarter of their shot quality."