FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Austin FC 1–1 Philadelphia UnionMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Philadelphia Union or draw at 74%. Bawler had Austin FC at 26%, the draw at 25% and Philadelphia Union at 49%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Austin FC win
26%
Draw
25%
Result
Philadelphia Union win
49%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.7
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Philadelphia Union or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.