FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Austin FC 1–1 Philadelphia UnionMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Austin FC at 26%, draw at 25%, Philadelphia Union at 49%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Philadelphia Union to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
26%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Union win
49%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.22 – 1.74
Total 2.95
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✗ Lost