FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 Houston Dynamo FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had San Jose Earthquakes at 50%, draw at 24%, Houston Dynamo FC at 26%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward San Jose Earthquakes.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Earthquakes win
50%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
FC win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.87 – 1.31
Total 3.19
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 39%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals arrives at 83% confidence as San Jose's 1.88 expected goals—a 0.56 edge over Houston—projects a high-volume attacking night at home."