FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
San Jose Earthquakes 2–2 LAFCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had San Jose Earthquakes at 38%, draw at 24%, LAFC at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was San Jose Earthquakes to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Earthquakes win
38%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
LAFC win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.66 – 1.65
Total 3.30
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects as the high-confidence call at 84% because San Jose and LAFC's combined expected goals of 3.30 suggest an open, attacking fixture with both sides generating comparable chances."