FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
San Jose Earthquakes 1–5 Minnesota United FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had San Jose Earthquakes at 49%, draw at 23%, Minnesota United FC at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-5. The model's headline call was San Jose Earthquakes to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Earthquakes win
49%
Draw
23%
FC win
28%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.94 – 1.42
Total 3.37
Actual
1 – 5
Total 6 (+2.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 35%
✗ Lost