FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
San Jose Earthquakes 1–5 Minnesota United FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was San Jose Earthquakes or draw at 72%. Bawler had San Jose Earthquakes at 49%, the draw at 23% and Minnesota United FC at 28%. The match finished 1–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
San Jose Earthquakes win
49%
Draw
23%
Minnesota United FC win
28%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.4
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 5
Total 6 (+2.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 2.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
San Jose Earthquakes or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.