What we expect
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025 and 2026 seasons in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Austin FC vs San Diego FC?
Bawler's model rates this match: San Diego FC are favoured (45% win probability vs 30% for Austin FC, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Austin FC vs San Diego FC?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Austin FC 1-1 San Diego FC (11.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.10.
How does Bawler predict Austin FC vs San Diego FC?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Austin FC 30%, the draw 25% and San Diego FC 45%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Austin FC vs San Diego FC?
BTTS: Yes (61% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.39 and away expected goals 1.71.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Austin FC vs San Diego FC?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.10. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).