FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 15 October 2026
LAFC 3–1 Austin FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was LAFC to win at 67%. Bawler had LAFC at 67%, the draw at 20% and Austin FC at 13%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
LAFC win
67%
Result
Draw
20%
Austin FC win
13%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 0.9
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
LAFC to win
Pre-match: 67%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.