FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 18 October 2026
LA Galaxy 2–2 San Diego FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was LA Galaxy or draw at 64%. Bawler had LA Galaxy at 41%, the draw at 23% and San Diego FC at 36%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
LA Galaxy win
41%
Draw
23%
Result
San Diego FC win
36%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.7
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.