FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Austin FC 1–4 Nashville SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Nashville SC or draw at 74%. Bawler had Austin FC at 26%, the draw at 26% and Nashville SC at 49%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Austin FC win
26%
Draw
26%
Nashville SC win
49%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.7
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 4.9
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Austin FC to win
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.