FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 15 October 2026
San Diego FC 3–3 Houston Dynamo FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was San Diego FC or draw at 71%. Bawler had San Diego FC at 46%, the draw at 26% and Houston Dynamo FC at 29%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
San Diego FC win
46%
Draw
26%
Result
Houston Dynamo FC win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.1 against our forecast)
The match produced 3.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
San Diego FC or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.