How it finished
Cagliari beat Atalanta 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Atalanta at 56% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Cagliari 20%. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Atalanta had 22 shots (4 on target) to Cagliari's 5 (5), with 62% of the ball against 38%. On expected goals it was 1.3 to 1.1, so Atalanta created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 67%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Cagliari beat Atalanta 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Atalanta at 56% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Cagliari 20%. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Atalanta had 22 shots (4 on target) to Cagliari's 5 (5), with 62% of the ball against 38%. On expected goals it was 1.3 to 1.1, so Atalanta created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Atalanta 1–2 Cagliari, played on 12 Sept 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Atalanta 56%, the draw 24% and Cagliari 20%.
What were the stats in Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Full-time: Possession 62%–38%, Expected goals (xG) 1.3–1.1, Shots 22–5, Shots on target 4–5, Shots inside box 13–3, Big chances 1–2, Corners 3–2, Saves 3–3, Fouls 9–8, Offsides 1–2.
Did both teams score in Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Yes — both Atalanta and Cagliari scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Atalanta vs Cagliari right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Atalanta or draw 80%, it finished Cagliari won (20% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 76%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Landed.