FT · Italy: Serie A · Monday, 07 September 2026
Cagliari 1–0 LecceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 07 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Cagliari at 47%, draw at 28%, Lecce at 25%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Cagliari.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Cagliari win
47%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Lecce win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.46 – 1.01
Total 2.47
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 71%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Lecce's desperate fight for survival clashes with Cagliari's mid-table comfort, but the home side's 0.40 xG advantage makes Over 1.5 Goals the model's 72% forecast."