FT · ITALY: Serie A · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Parma 0–1 CagliariMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Parma at 35%, draw at 30%, Cagliari at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Parma to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Parma win
35%
Draw
30%
Cagliari win
35%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.13 – 1.14
Total 2.28
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 66%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost