FT · ITALY: Serie A · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Parma 0–1 CagliariMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Cagliari or draw at 65%. Bawler had Parma at 35%, the draw at 30% and Cagliari at 35%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Parma win
35%
Draw
30%
Cagliari win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.1
Total 2.3
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 66%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.