FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 05 September 2026
AS Roma 2–1 AtalantaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had AS Roma at 48%, draw at 26%, Atalanta at 26%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward AS Roma.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Roma win
48%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Atalanta win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.63 – 1.13
Total 2.76
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Roma's fight to hold a European spot at home against Atalanta—level on stakes but trailing by four points—tilts toward an Over 1.5 Goals forecast (78%), as Dybala's creative threat and a 0.52 xG advantage suggest multiple scoring chances."