FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Hapoel Tel Aviv 0–1 AtalantaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Atalanta to win at 62%. Bawler had Hapoel Tel Aviv at 17%, the draw at 21% and Atalanta at 62%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Hapoel Tel Aviv win
17%
Draw
21%
Atalanta win
62%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 2.2
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Atalanta to win
Pre-match: 62%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Atalanta's away win is the high-confidence call at 62% probability, powered by a decisive 1.10 xG advantage with striker Mateo Retegui controlling 28% of their attacking output."