Atalanta vs Pafos prediction — Conference League · Thu 15 Oct · 20:00 UK

Conference League · Thu 15 Oct · 20:00 UK
58Atalanta win23Draw19Pafos win
Full time
3–1

How it finished

Atalanta beat Pafos 3–1. Atalanta had 20 shots (7 on target) to Pafos' 8 (5), with 65% of the ball against 35%. Expected goals finished 3.0 to 0.9.

AtalantaFull-time statsPafos
65%Possession35%
3.0Expected goals (xG)0.9
20Shots8
7Shots on target5
13Shots inside box5
3Big chances2
6Corners2
4Saves4
13Fouls11
2Offsides0
0Yellow cards1
We predicted
2–1
Likeliest score if Atalanta win (10%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (11%)
Expected goals
2.0v1.1
3.0 in total
Both teams score
56%
Leans yes
3+ goals
58%
Leans likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

AtalantaAtalantaPafosPafos
2.0Goals1.1
22.9Shots16.3
6.8On target5.4
4.9Corners4.4
AtalantaAtalantaPafosPafos
0.9Goals0.4
10.3Shots7.7
3.0On target2.3
2.3Corners2.1
AtalantaAtalantaPafosPafos
1.0Goals0.7
12.6Shots8.6
3.7On target3.0
2.6Corners2.3

What we said the chances were

Atalanta to score86%
2 or more goals80%
Goal before half-time73%
Pafos to score65%
3 goals or fewer64%

First half — what we expected

Atalanta
60%
to score before half-time
Pafos
33%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

AtalantaAtalantaPafosPafos
65%9+ shots37%
45%11+ shots20%
77%2+ shots on target63%
36%4+ shots on target22%
86%1+ corners82%
39%3+ corners34%

League position

Pafos in their league tableUpper half
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Atalanta form →Pafos form →

Common questions

Who won Atalanta vs Pafos?

Atalanta beat Pafos 3–1. Atalanta had 20 shots (7 on target) to Pafos' 8 (5), with 65% of the ball against 35%. Expected goals finished 3.0 to 0.9.

What was the final score in Atalanta vs Pafos?

Atalanta 3–1 Pafos, played on 15 Oct 2026 in the Europe: Conference League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Atalanta 58%, the draw 23% and Pafos 19%.

What were the stats in Atalanta vs Pafos?

Full-time: Possession 65%–35%, Expected goals (xG) 3.0–0.9, Shots 20–8, Shots on target 7–5, Shots inside box 13–5, Big chances 3–2, Corners 6–2, Saves 4–4, Fouls 13–11, Offsides 2–0, Yellow cards 0–1.

Did both teams score in Atalanta vs Pafos?

Yes — both Atalanta and Pafos scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.