Atalanta beat Pafos 3–1. Atalanta had 20 shots (7 on target) to Pafos' 8 (5), with 65% of the ball against 35%. Expected goals finished 3.0 to 0.9.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Atalanta beat Pafos 3–1. Atalanta had 20 shots (7 on target) to Pafos' 8 (5), with 65% of the ball against 35%. Expected goals finished 3.0 to 0.9.
Atalanta 3–1 Pafos, played on 15 Oct 2026 in the Europe: Conference League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Atalanta 58%, the draw 23% and Pafos 19%.
Full-time: Possession 65%–35%, Expected goals (xG) 3.0–0.9, Shots 20–8, Shots on target 7–5, Shots inside box 13–5, Big chances 3–2, Corners 6–2, Saves 4–4, Fouls 13–11, Offsides 2–0, Yellow cards 0–1.
Yes — both Atalanta and Pafos scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.