What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 70%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
Atalanta should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Pafos. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Atalanta or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Atalanta vs Pafos?
Bawler's model rates this match: Atalanta are favoured (58% win probability vs 19% for Pafos, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Pafos?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Atalanta 1-1 Pafos (10.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.98.
How does Bawler predict Atalanta vs Pafos?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Atalanta 58%, the draw 23% and Pafos 19%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Pafos?
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.96 and away expected goals 1.03.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Atalanta vs Pafos?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.98. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).